Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world. Traders need look no further than their Twitter feeds to gain an edge in currency markets, according to a new study by a pair of academics. Buying and selling the euro based on predictions tweeted by currency watchers would give you risk-adjusted returns almost four times bigger than standard carry-trade strategies, Vahid Gholampour and Eric van Wincoop found in a paper published last month.
While Twitter has million active monthly users offering character opinions on everything from election outcomes to sports results, currency predictions tend to be shared by people with skin in the game who care about their credibility, which may explain the wisdom of listening to what they have to say.
Many have cultivated captive audiences. That compares with an annualized 0. The bigger the Sharpe ratio the better because it indicates that after stripping out volatility, an investment strategy offers consistent returns over time.
Even Twitter forecasters with fewer than followers managed 0. Five years later, academics from IMT Institute for Advanced Studies in Italy published research suggesting that Twitter sentiment during busy periods, such as ahead of the flurry of quarterly earnings releases, provides at least some indication of whether an individual stock is likely to rise or fall.
While there seems to be wisdom in digital crowds, whether it can be harnessed to make money is more doubtful. A number of hedge funds have tried setting up funds that use social media to inform decisions, but two of the most notable, run by Derwent Capital Markets and MarketPsy Capital, folded after a few months due to lack of investment. More and more money managers are factoring social media into their allocations, after all.
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Instagram. About The Company Bloomberg London. Global Risk Briefing Road to Brexit: Latest Issue Debrief Podcast Subscribe. How to Beat FX Market? April 9, , 7: New paper analyzes predictive powers of social media site. Mirroring users with plus followers offers big returns. Corrects university name in third-last paragraph of story published on April Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.
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